By: Grant Mercer at The Patriot Ledger

As the race to fill New York’s 21st Congressional District (NY-21) intensifies, one candidate is emerging not as a frontrunner, but as a major liability.

State Senator Dan Stec’s congressional ambitions are drawing side-eyes from GOP insiders, Senate colleagues, and base Republican voters alike. Between his well-documented anti-Trump past, his frosty relationships with fellow Republicans, and personal controversies swirling around him, Stec’s candidacy may be the biggest threat to the GOP holding this key seat.

Stec’s troubles with the Republican base start at the top with his record on Donald Trump.

In 2016, when Trump first ran for president, Stec refused to endorse him for months. Only after being backed into a political corner did he finally “reluctantly” announce his support. And even then, as Stec admitted at the time, he hesitated. His failure to immediately back the nominee is well-documented and continues to be a source of distrust among Trump loyalists.

Fast forward to 2024. Trump’s influence on the Republican Party is stronger than ever. Yet, insiders report that Stec once again resisted. According to multiple sources, he vehemently opposed and complained behind closed doors about signing a letter of endorsement from the Senate Republican Conference, viewing it as forced and insincere. It’s no surprise, Trump’s base voters aren’t buying his new tune. A tune that ironically changed as he jumped into the fray to replace Elise Stefanik whose ties to Trump are anything but cagey, making it questionable if the base will be with him in a special election or will sit on their hands as has often happened in past Congressional special elections in New York.

As one insider said, “It’s no secret New York Republican’s record in special elections isn’t great and the problems always starts with bad candidate selection that leads to lower turnout and lack of support and enthusiasm from the base.”

But it’s not just the grassroots who may be skeptical of Stec, his own colleagues in Albany may be too.

Within the Senate GOP, Stec is known as a complainer and a lone wolf who lacks the ability to be a team player. He’s reportedly spent the past few months whining to colleagues about why they aren’t backing his congressional run, complaining to many he is “owed” this seat and it should be “given” to him.

As one Senate insider said to us on the condition of anonymity, “The reason none of his colleagues are supporting him is easy and obvious…they don’t like him.”

One of the assets Stec loves to talk about to his colleagues is how he’s successfully won elections in NY-21. What he doesn’t like to mention is how all his races have been uncontested through his cutting back backroom deals with Democrats to avoid any real competition.

Stec has skated by unopposed or under-challenged, due to throwing republican candidates under the bus and making arrangements to protect Democratic candidates in legislative district where Republicans could have won and made gains in Albany. However, his greed for his own political survival left many Republicans hanging while protecting his own seat.

As one former Republican candidate in the district summed up the sentiment bluntly:

“I wouldn’t piss on Dan Stec if he were on fire.”

As if his political liabilities weren’t enough, Stec’s personal life is tangled up in messy headlines that threaten to spill over into his campaign.

It’s widely known among insiders that Stec’s current girlfriend and his former mistress who allegedly broke up his marriage, is employed in his Senate office, raising ethical questions about favoritism and misuse of public resources. Meanwhile, his ex-wife is now in a relationship with another elected legislator in the district, adding to the potential for riffs among his elected colleague. The personal drama surrounding Stec has become impossible to ignore, and Democrats will no doubt weaponize it if he becomes the nominee.

In a district like NY-21, reliably Republican but not a guaranteed lock, Stec is emerging as exactly the kind of candidate who could cause Republicans to lose a seat they should safely win. His baggage isn’t going unnoticed; the question being, how much will it weigh him and the party down?

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